Sport Pilot Talk

Liability may be an excuse for Cessna. It is meaningless here.

With a bunch of little distributors/manufacturers, all a lawsuit can do is cause one of them to declare bankruptcy. That's how it works in such trades. A real estate developer, airplane manufacturer, car dealership, whatever, is sued, declares bankruptcy, closes, and the owner's wife, kid, gardener, etc starts a new business in the same field. Yeah I'm partly joking but only partly. You say there are 50 LSA makers, which means a single lawsuit can't take out more than 1:50th of the makers. Losing one competitor in fifty won't reduce competition enough to cause an increase in prices.

That said, have there really been a lot of lawsuits against LSA companies? When I was researching leasebacks it seemed a fairly low risk. General commentary was that courts typically do not consider aircraft to be different than cars from a liability perspective. Depends on the state of course.

You have to read some of the cases lost by GA manufacturers to get a feel for how people on juries view airplanes. A producer of carburators got hammered by a jury in PHL not long ago. When you see the facts of the case it's hard to believe. I know it is more difficult to pursue a product liability case in Europe than the US. I suppose if they sell their product in the US they will be subject to our legal system and the hefty legal premiums that go along with it.

I was going through the POH of a LSA that I plan to flight instruct in recently. The book was as thick as a bible, with warnings not to do this or do that. But when you go to the performance section to determine take off distance, it gives you the distance required for a standard day on a paved rwy, nothing else. No way to compute take off distance for any other conditions. Thats asking for trouble.

As for lawsuits involving LSA's, I haven't read about any yet.

Guys, you do realize we have WAY MORE different types of LSAs than 50 LSAs? We now have over 100 different LSAs, possibly approximately 115 LSAs.

True. Dan Johnson lists 115, of which 88 are ASEL (the type most of us fly). The rest are weight shift, power parachute, amphibian, and gliders. But, of the 88 ASEL approved under ASTM, quite a few are no longer in production. So, I think 50 current acft is a fair estimate.

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The opinions expressed in this post are those of one CFI, and do not necessarily represent the position of the FAA or its lawyers.
Prof. H. Paul Shuch, Ph.D., CFII, LSRM-A/GL/WS
AvSport of Lock Haven
http://AvSport.org fly@AvSport.org

Interesting discussion. (Just returned from Brisbane - permanently, now - and so catching up).

A missing piece in the 'theoretical' discussion about operating a (S/E-LSA) business, in my mind, is the wide disparity of 'manufacturers. Some firms operate on an international scale with decades of commercial tenure, some are national (Sling comes to mine, in South Africa, or Jabiru in Oz and the USA), and some are very (very) small-time operators. To ascribe the same economic principles to such divergent business models is an interesting exercise but based on my business experience not all feet fit the same set of shoes. E.g. recently one of the Dynon principals was explaining to me that the reason there is less shake-out in the current LSA market (which has struggled with terrible economic circumstances for a majority of its short life) is that some Mom & Pop businesses, who earn revenue from a mix of sources (instruction, rental, photo, used and also new brokering of both 23 and LSA a/c) can struggle along on selling only a few S-LSA a/c per year. That's not the same biz model that Cessna is attempting, nor the one a Vans or Zenair is attempting on the kit side.

Put more succinctly, we are at the very front end of a new industry cycle where great variability exists among the various players (just like we were in the early 1900's when small shops built cars in small numbers while Henry was cranking up a production line). Which leads me to what I think is the far more interesting issue, one that Paul touched on briefly:

The GA business model as it has existed for 5-6 decades now doesn't necessarily have to be the the only marketplace an LSA mfgr. has to play in. Look carefully at Paul's comment about advertising LSA's in AARP mags but adapt it more broadly. E.g. let's move it to the massive Sun City complexes in the U.S., where folks with available disposable income and bucket lists live inside these large mini-cities with a wide array of existing hobby shops funded by the developer and with the residents having lots of time on their hands now they are retired. In my mind, that's simply a combo that has not yet been well explored by the LSA dealer or regional mfgr. nor seen yet by the community of residents with bucket lists. Imagine for a moment the massive Sun City complex near me outside Tampa (where BTW there are almost no home foreclosures and high resale values in all types of homes, whereas Florida generally is second only to Calif. for lost property values). Whole strip malls service these thousands of well-heeled retirees. Imagine Mitch Lock (the Vans east coast rep) flying his RV-12 down to the grass strip nearby, trailering it to the Publix parking lot in the heart of this Sun City complex, putting the wings back on and helping those residents understand how they too could have their own plane - one just like this one! - without a medical, for not much more than that 5-series BMW they are considering. I can't say it would be a slam dunk commercial success, but from what I can tell, this kind of marriage of new products with different markets simply is in its infancy when it comes to marketing LSA a/c.

This is not a new idea, and in fact Dick VanG (founder/owner of Vans) has not only written on this topic repeatedly - trying to spur folks to think outside the existing GA business model - but he's even taken his own RV-12 to an RV (not the plane, but the motorhome industry-type RV) Expo near his factory. He did it partially just to see what would happen as retirees walked around with $300K in their pocket shopping motorhomes, but it also illustrates a bit of the 'out of the box' thinking he is promulgating.

Similarly, look at Ham's desire to operate a small LSA flight school after retiring from being a jet jockey for Uncle Sam. Imagine Mitch in front of that Sun City Publix grocery, demo'ing his RV-12, and as curious retirees probe about buying/building/flying a plane and ask '...and so how do I learn to fly one of these?', Ham's in another part of the same parking lot with his brochure ready to hand out, explaining it's a 3-month process here in sunny warm Florida, costing maybe $5-6K, and all nearby at a local field.

To me, this is the missing piece WRT the SP and LSA marketplace. Those two, new circumstances - a new type of license and a new type of a/c - are trying to be force-fit into an old Part 23 business model - at least for the most part. From what I can see from Paul's website and his comments here, he's somewhat outside that box with one foot in each camp. But meanwhile, the guy over in Sarasota, who's in the Part 23 business and trying to sell his $150K CT or $125/hr flight lesson might have new hardware on the apron but he's working off an old business model. As the LSA industry continues to operate, I'm interested to see how much pushing of the commercial envelope is going to occur, and just where it leads.

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Jack
RAF Florida State Liaison
Please visit www.theraf.org

Jack, I commeded Paul's idea of getting some press from AARP in an earlier post. As I said, I tried to gain AARP interest through an e-mail I sent them a few months ago regarding the emerging LSA opportunities
for retirees, but got no response. Maybe I used the wrong e-mail portal. If anyone knows how to reach their editor, I would be happy to try again. I think it is in all our best interests to promote our hobby and I do at every opportunity.

By the way, I will be retiring to the sunshine state shortly myself - St Pete Beach area. Looking forward to the abundant LSA opportunities down there as well as the additional flying weather. D.C area weather has been really frustrating most of the last year.

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Tecnam Flyer

Jack, well said.

I might have some technical disputes about whether the economic principles really vary all that much (I think that within a pool of customers the principles are usually extremely uniform...in other words, all sellers of powered parachutes in the USA face the same economic realities, though those may be totally different from sellers of business jets), but you hit exactly what I was aiming at, and said it better than I did.


The current market is inelastic due to a limited pool of customers. Inelastic markets lead to high prices. To increase elasticity, which will allow lower lower prices, you must increase the size of the market. To do that you must bring in new customers...which is not happening.

It is misplaced fatalism to say, "Building airplanes is expensive, nothing can be done, it's already a really competitive market with 50+ participants and prices are high so they'll always be high."

Welcome back to the States, Jack.

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The opinions expressed in this post are those of one CFI, and do not necessarily represent the position of the FAA or its lawyers.
Prof. H. Paul Shuch, Ph.D., CFII, LSRM-A/GL/WS
AvSport of Lock Haven
http://AvSport.org fly@AvSport.org

Welcome to the Sunshine State, TF...or at least, sometime soon. Once you get settled into SP Beach, I'll hope to introduce you to a bit of a legend out there who''s still CFI'ing in his 80's, too. Al 's life is just one long story of adventures, from the Flying Xmas Tree to being told by a Jap Zero flight leader why his B-24 wasn't shot down, 30 years later. And a kind and gentle guy, to boot.

Paul, thanks for the welcome back. We'll miss the adventures of the high seas but getting back into
GA is one of the rewards.

And Jon, it really is a conundrum for me. We all (I think, anyway...) know the historical model that worked best for GA in staying healthy: expose the young to aviation and let that interest blossom, let young families enjoy the freedom of travel by air once those kids became married, and then reap the later rewards that as they became members of the business community, early retirees, and others who "use" aviation in some functional capacity as well as enjoy it. But that model seems to have gone the way of the buggy whip.

The youth (mostly, from what I can tell) find computer games, malls and other distractions to be far more interesting than flying. I'm truly amazed at how blase' todays youth is towards flight. The young adults, usually in the form of two working spouses or single parents with families, are stressed to the max just to juggle their loads & to keep their jobs, and so those supply lines that used to ultimately furnish the buyers of the turbo'd Cessnas, light twins and Bonanzas simply aren't being created today. It's unfair to expect that the older generations, with their bucket lists and disposable incomes, should be the source of rescuing the fledgling LSA movement all by themselves...but I honestly don't know where else to look. So my point is to work it hard and see if there's some resonance between what SP aviation can offer and what older folks - those with the time, money and perhaps interest - are looking for. Who knows the answer? Perhaps Paul is as close to knowing as anyone, since he's doing it. What I do know is that, if I was Ham, I would be scratching my head.

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Jack
RAF Florida State Liaison
Please visit www.theraf.org

I wasn't around for the age of healthy GA - I know it only as history, and suspect the accuracy of what I've read. You say it stayed healthy by drawing in young people, but there hasn't been a time in my life when aviation wasn't a wealthy old person's activity.

You blame video games. I blame the exclusivity and astronomical cost perceptions. Too many people talking about $80K avionics stacks and $400K airplanes. No sane teenager, no sane twenty-something, is going to pursue an activity that is perceived as costing 10 years of a young person's salary to join, is alien to every normal activity, and is layered with tons of bureaucracy. Especially not when everything else, every other activity, was getting cheaper while aviation stagnated.

I don't think it has anything to do with video games. I grew up with them. As a teenager I bought myself a small cruising sailboat. It was quite expensive but in my perception it was attainable. I attained it. I sailed it. I dumped a lot of money into it but I had fun. At the same time, I perceived aviation was perceived as so crushingly expensive I didn't even bother looking...not that I would've really known where to look since literally nobody in my world flew. I grew up in a fairly affluent part of Southern California. Whatever system was supposed to expose me to aviation early simply didn't exist in my experience. Instead the system actively steered me away from aviation, and I was interested. I flew model airplanes starting at an early age. I read books about ultralights and kit planes. I am technical and interested. The only people who tried to interest me in aviation were recruiters for the USAF, and I am worth more as a civilian than I'd ever be in the military.

It wasn't until I was in my early 30s and making decent money (when I crossed the 85th percentile or so) that I was feeling flush enough to check out aviation, and I was surprised at how cheap it was.

I'm still in my 30s and I'm not advocating counting on retired people and bucket lists. I'm suggesting that the industry should try to reach out to someone, anyone, instead of simply waiting and hoping that the phone will ring. Advertise, have aviation shows that are more than military recruiting money-wasters. Seek out customers. The wise man on the mountain waiting for knowledge seekers routine just isn't working.

But that's just me, I'm not in the industry, what do I know?

Jon, it wasn't always thus. 50 years ago next month, I took my first lesson in a 15 year old Aeronca Champ that cost its owners $1200. That was a lot of money back then, but $300 from each of four partners was achievable. It was 18 years later that I was finally able to afford my own first airplane - a 9 year old Beechcraft Sierra that set me back $16,000. That was about half a year's salary for a schoolteacher. Flying wasn't exactly cheap, but it was within the means of the middle-class.

So, it's just within the past three decades or so that flying costs have escalated beyond reason. I remain hopeful that LSA may change that -- but we're not there yet.

_________________
The opinions expressed in this post are those of one CFI, and do not necessarily represent the position of the FAA or its lawyers.
Prof. H. Paul Shuch, Ph.D., CFII, LSRM-A/GL/WS
AvSport of Lock Haven
http://AvSport.org fly@AvSport.org

Yep, and nowadays a 35+ year old Sierra will set a person back $55K (according to a quick search of barnstormers), which is probably closer to a full year's pay for most school teachers.

It will take the industry a lot of work to get out from under that perception (and reality) cloud. Given that the FAA has power over the industry and seems content to reign over the death of GA there is very good reason to be discouraged.

Discussing the most emergence of GA, from its blossoming after WWII to its heyday in the 1970's, serves the useful purpose of showing how much has changed...and consequently, how the past is not going to be prologue. Jon, I too grew up in SoCal (tho' in the 50's & 60's) and my memories paint a pretty distinct picture. Aviation was perceived to be exciting activity in its own right (and one that simply dripped 'technology'), airports (and even airfields, since not all of SoCal's orchards and small towns had been turned into housing tracts back then) were immediately accessible to a kid on a bike. (I could ride my bike over to Long Beach Muni and gawk at the planes on the apron, and the next week my parents would pay $15 each to fly on a Grumman amphib over to Catalina for vacation, buzzing the casino and landing in the harbor). The familiarity post-WWII veterans had with aviation was pervasive. My dad thought nothing of walking onto that same field to begin asking folks about flight lessons, and he'd fought the war beside a printing press in New Mexico...but he was an USAAF private, and planes were somewhat like cars to him. The Press Telegram would run ads about the new Cessna & Piper model years being introduced just like the Chevy and Buick dealers...and gasoline was 25 cents/gal.

I think we all realize how different today's environment is, where more experimentals are being registered than factory built a/c and even the dreaded FAA was persuaded to allow a new a/c class to be created absent most of its bureaucracy. There is very little 'technology' perceived to exist in such spam cans by today's young adults (nor is there in reality). Planes are amazingly cheap today if one buys an old 60's Cherokee ($25-30K) or Cessna 172 ($30-40K), according to Barnstormers. But I think the change that Jon referred to which is most influential - and which I meant to allude to by referencing video games - is that to my mind folks have simply moved on in their lives. Personal aviation simply isn't the widely idolized nor easily viewed activity today that it used to be, insofar as I can tell, nor is it as visible nor accessible physically. So resurrecting the GA industry via the old business model - 'turning things around' and hoping that expanding numbers will once again swell the ranks of pilots and plane owners - just doesn't seem to reflect reality. And while there are many inhibitors to GA flourishing today, from its costs to fewer fields to a tired fleet of planes to more regulation in the skies, I don't think any of those things influence a population of people who, by and large, don't give personal aviation a moment's thought. And why should they?

Seems to me the 'answer' (if there is one...) is in the niche markets where slices of private & small scale commercial aviation can still flourish. One such niche market might be retirees, if it is brought to them effectively. Another niche market - somewhat amazing to me - is the experimental scene. Farmers still need ag pilots, and developers, county assessors and others still need aerial photographers, just as radio and TV stations still need traffic reporters. But these are all small slices of a once very large pie. There are other ways in which GA has managed to remain affordable and accessible even into this century (and so viable), examples being flying clubs and partnerships. In my area, both of these seem to be waning in popularity and I don't think there's a single flying club in my metro area of 2 million people now. So beyond niche markets, there may simply be no reason for general aviation to be a vibrant and widely deployed activity - ever.

My, what a depressing thought to begin the day on...

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Jack
RAF Florida State Liaison
Please visit www.theraf.org

Jack, I believe there is a club in our area. The Tampa Bay Flying Club. Google it if interested. I contacted them and exchanged a few e-mails, but they didn't seem to have much interest in LSA - even though their web site talks about acuiring a motor glider. Maybe another example of a PPL community that could benefit from some LSA education. I believe they fly out of Peter O'Keefe airport.

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Tecnam Flyer

Fantastic analysis and discussion...thanks for the education.

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Dave