Sport aviation is growing rapidly. But the new sport pilot / light-sport aircraft rules are still a mystery to many flight schools and instructors. To locate a flight school offering sport pilot training and/or light-sport aircraft rentals, click on the "Flight School And Rental Finder" tab above. This is a great place to share ideas on learning to fly, flight schools, costs and anything else related to training.
As some of you know, I can only fly in the weekends, and I have to drive 2+ hours to and from the airport I train at. Obviously with winter coming, the weather will be a major factor now in finishing my flight training.
How far in advance can you get an accurate or semi-acurate weather report in the midwest (Chicago), either from internet resources or by calling FSS (1–800 –WX–BRIEF)? Also, I would appreciate any tips you might have on this issue (e.g. no flying days in Jan, Feb? Or any certain hours in the day that the winds typically subside? Or are there ways to get an educated guess on the weather 3-4 days in advance?)
Having done my solo, I have my dual and solo cross countries left, and then preparation for the exam. Plus, I'd like to get a couple more dual hours landing in cross winds... I fly from a grass field, so I guess once the heavy snow hits the ground, the flying will be off until Spring
My experience is that anything farther out than two days is a crapshoot, and the details like wind direction and strength or ceiling heights are likely to be off even 24 hours out. Major weather trends like a long stretch of clear weather or storms might be more or less correct a week out, but rarely is it spot on.
One of the best detail sites I use is the aviation weather at usairnet. It has a lot of information for and airport for a 48-72hr timeframe, presented in a nice easy to read chart showing all the important weather components, and it's at least as accurate as anything I have used:
Rezaf, I wish your simply stated question was so easily answered. The reliability of a forecast depends on a series of major variables, many of them a function of your local area but also seasonal and continental variables.
To illustrate, one of NOAA's senior forecasters has the duty each day (about 3 a.m. or so) to weight 8 major forecasts - from several universities, the Dept of Ag, and so forth. These forecasts in turn use various forecast models, and the Sr. NOAA Forecaster's job is to weight these various forecasts into NOAA's own national, oceanic and continental forecasts for the day. Sometimes these forecasts are in fairly uniform agreement but other times they vary so widely that the Sr. Forecaster, in his/her daily discussion accompanying the forecast, essentially declares the NOAA forecast a best-guess SWAG. (We have used these discussions to weight our own tactical decisions when doing long ocean sailing passages).
Many of us have our favorite forecast sources for aviation purposes, perhaps in part because we have found the model(s) a given forecast source uses is a better fit for our area than others. And tracking several forecast sources over time will give you a good feel for where to place more of your faith...but unfortunately this is more applicable to your future flying lifestyle than it is to your near term dilemma.
My suggestion: call up your nearby NOAA NWS forecast center. For you it may be the Chicago/Romeoville National Weather Service Forecast Office. Ask to speak with that office's senior forecaster or forecast staff member and first ask if they have a local mailing list they use for disseminating specific daily local area forecasts. If they do - and it would be surprising if they didn't - then get on that list. (You probably want the forecast info closest to your training airport, not your home). Second, ask what aviation specific local area forecast products they issue and how you access them. While these local products may not be perfect, they will be based on much local knowledge and the daily wx email is made available to you with no effort on your part. FWIW I've found our NWS daily emails to be as good as a forecast can be given the variables that exist.
Jack
Flying in/out KBZN, Bozeman MT in a Grumman Tiger
Do you fly for recreational purposes? Please visit http://www.theraf.org
Kudos on your dedication Rezaf. I also drove 3 hours each way for my flight training, in all seasons. It is possible. A few comments in addition to those above:
1) Weather is Challenging: Weather has often been one of the most challenging aspects of flying for a student. As you progress to solos, cross country and your certificate it will become an even greater factor. Don't stop learning about the weather. Keep re-reading weather educational materials you will understand more and more every time you read them.
2) Graphical and Easy to Understand: Personally I use Accuweather as a FIRST STEP. It gives easy to understand daily and hourly forecasts with winds. This is the overall "think I can fly? / first look". Then I look at ForeFlight which I love because everything is presented in an easy to understand method.
All on ForeFlight:
METARS: What's happening now. If your airport doesn't shoe METARS those of nearby airports are shown.
TAF: For looking ahead 12 hours or so.
RADAR (overlaid VFR map): What's moving where? When do you think that rain or snow is going to hit your area? Which direction is it coming from?
FLIGHT RULES: Colored dots appear all over the map indicating VFR / Marginal VFR /IFR. From this you can see a trend over a wide area and quickly see where the weather is good and bad.
CEILINGS: Icons pop up all over the map showing ceilings.
SURFACE WINDS: Again… icons all over the map
Now you have a pretty good overall brief and trend. As per FAA FARs, of course you should check "all available information" as well as other resources that are personally valuable to you.
BRIEF: Once you input your plane tail number, performance specs, and pilot info in ForeFlight once, you can then enter your flight route on the VFR chart… even just a local circle around your airport. Hit BRIEF and viola… you are legally briefed!
3) For Cross-Country Something is Usually Going to Be Marginal: As you start going places you will find VFR weather to be challenging. Even perfect days usually have some marginal element to the flight somewhere along your route… winds, ceiling, visibility, local conditions etc. It is challenging. Marginal days are even more challenging because they start with known marginal weather to begin with and vary from there.
4) Local Knowledge: As suggested above by Jack can be a big help. I too fly in a very local weather area with many lakes and typically low ceilings.
5) Double Book Training Days: Maybe book 2 flights a day, morning and afternoon. There's a higher chance of getting at least one flight, or possibly both flights if the weather is really good. It helps when commuting for your training.
Keep at it and Good Luck!
Last edited by designrs on Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This time of year the weather can be either really good or really bad with anywhere in between possible. You will find forecast for conditions later in the day to be fairly accurate, any farther out I would use some caution. In the Chicago area if the conditions are forecast to be good, but you have a East or Northeast wind be extra cautious about the conditions. Also talk with your flight instructor. Hopefully they have been flying in the area long enough to have a handle on the local weather patterns.
3Dreaming wrote:This time of year the weather can be either really good or really bad with anywhere in between possible. You will find forecast for conditions later in the day to be fairly accurate, any farther out I would use some caution. In the Chicago area if the conditions are forecast to be good, but you have a East or Northeast wind be extra cautious about the conditions. Also talk with your flight instructor. Hopefully they have been flying in the area long enough to have a handle on the local weather patterns.
Thanks! This is great information, exactly the type of local weather patterns I need.
MrMorden wrote:My experience is that anything farther out than two days is a crapshoot, and the details like wind direction and strength or ceiling heights are likely to be off even 24 hours out. Major weather trends like a long stretch of clear weather or storms might be more or less correct a week out, but rarely is it spot on.
One of the best detail sites I use is the aviation weather at usairnet. It has a lot of information for and airport for a 48-72hr timeframe, presented in a nice easy to read chart showing all the important weather components, and it's at least as accurate as anything I have used:
