METARS are updated hourly unless there is a significant change in the weather at the reporting station. Changing cloud cover would not trigger an update unless flight rules changed from IFR<->VFR. It is certainly plausible that a given area would change from broken to solid between reports so you could easily find yourself on top of a layer that has closed around you.designrs wrote:So if you get a whole wide trend of METARs near your destination (updated pretty much realtime on Stratus) and have plenty of fuel?
Fuel is a very good thing which, of course, buys you time to get out the mess you've gotten yourself into.
Don't get me wrong -- I have no issues with flying on top of a layer but one just needs to consider the capability of the pilot and plane when planning to do so.
For instance, I recall flying a leg from Angel Fire, NM to the DFW area where I was crossing a frontal boundary. Forecast was for clear skies before and after the boundary with 3K ceilings broken to solid for the ~100nm of the clouds in the middle. This was a zero-risk scenario for me since I could bail out backwards, continue forward or cut through into VFR conditions.