Assuming the reformed medical goes through as planned I don't personally see there being too much downward pressure on LSA prices.rezaf_2000 wrote:Well the pilot protection act specifies VFR, so I guess this is guaranteed to not include IFR. The first stop would be two seaters that are a bit over 1320 lbs, which includes all the Cessna 150/152s. That ought to increase the price of them by a few thousand dollars at least. The main question is whether the bill would put pressure on the price of modern LSAs (probably), and by how much.SportPilot wrote:I would be happy if the proposal was as simple as: Licensed Private Pilots or higher may operate under Sport Pilot privileges and limitations using a driver's license medical in standard certificated single engine, fixed gear aircraft up to 3200 pounds max certified gross weigh and 235 horsepower.
Alternatively, how much lower can LSAs go and still be profitable for their manufactures? With the added price pressure, possibly some of the smaller manufacturers are going to go out of business, and the few that remain each get larger market share. Whoever can streamline their manufacturing process and reduce the costs, will win.
I can't wait for the new medical reform, but not to buy an old 150 or 172. I just would like to see the LSA prices go down.
After the reform (if it passes) I presume that Light Sport rules would still be in effect. The 1320lb rule etc. The sport pilot may now be able to fly both LSA and the older GA airplanes like the 150/172. However, there won't be a glut of reasonably priced GA airplanes on the market other than the older ones out there now. Prices of new 172s will still be very high. Other than the refurbished C152s that AOPA is pushing through Aviat for around $100k and Sportys' refurbished C172 Lite airplanes, there isn't anything else as 'new' as recent LSAs.
I think LSAs will continue in their own right as a source of well performing recreational flying as an alternative to the 'legacy' airplanes like Cessna and Piper.
My RV-12 SLSA is a popular LSA and there are hundreds built as Experimentals. Today I flew mine at a KTAS of 125 kts at 4500' on about 4.5gph using $3.66 93 non-ethanol auto-gas. I think it performs better than the older GA airplanes but it has it's limitations too.
A couple of neighbors at the airfield have older C152s one using auto-gas and the other 100LL. Both really nice airplanes in great shape. One guy really wants an RV-12 and has his eyes on winning the Sportys one. He can't afford a new one.
I don't see the price I paid for mine coming down at all and there's a queue of customers for new ones as well as kits, many with all the options. New FD CTLS airplanes and Tecnams all come with numerous expensive options and there are many who are willing to pay the premium for them.
I think LSA manufacturers have already trimmed their costs pretty well. The established manufacturers such as Flight Design, Tecnam, Czeck Sport Cruiser , Legend, Cub Crafters and Vans to name a few have pretty shrewd production facilities. In the end airplanes, especially new ones, aren't going to be cheap.
It will be interesting to see how the market adapts if the medical reform passes.