eyeflygps wrote:Just thinking out loud about what the PBORII will really mean...
Most people who already own their own LSA will probably keep them and fly them and not look back. Of course, a few will sell and move back to larger aircraft and IFR flight, etc.
People who are renting and flying LSA just because they want to will continue to do so.
People, like me, who are outside the 10 year window, of course the PBORII means nothing. We will continue to rent or own and fly LSA and be thankful we can still fly something.
People who fall within the 10 year window and are flying LSA because they don't want to risk going for another 3rd class medical and are renters, many will move back to larger aircraft as renters or owners. I have no idea how many this is, but wouldn't be surprised if 50 percent went back to larger aircraft.
That leaves people who fall within the 10 year window and have quit flying because they didn't want to fool with LSA. Many of these people probably still own their old Cessnas, Pipers, and Mooneys. I would think most owners will get back in the air. Maybe 50 percent of renters will get back in the air and the others have already moved on to other pursuits.
So, bottom line, I think rentals of LSA will go down somewhat. Sales of new LSA to individuals will probably not be significantly affected. Sales of LSA (new or used) to FBO's will probably go down. Sales and rentals of larger used aircraft, and prices, will probably go up.
We shall see.
Interesting analysis. Time will tell, but I bet you're close.
I'm in the outside of the 10 year window group as you are. Continued frustration over rental LSA availability may drive me to trying for a medical and let the chips fall where they may. I'm not going to drive 2 hours each way to rent the closest LSA (which take 4 hours away from my kids and weekend home chores), so for me in my current situation, that's essentially a grounding anyway. If it get the medical(which is very probable, but I like odds to be closer to 100%), then there's several 172s/cherokee 140/160/180s etc out there to rent (or buy). That's all I'd really need for the majority of my flying anyway.