What will change for YOU if the medical changes go through?

Here's the place to ask all of your medical questions. But don't believe everything you read!

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Nomore767
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What will change for YOU if the medical changes go through?

Postby Nomore767 » Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:48 am

If the EAA/AOPA proposal to change the 3rd Class medical goes through what changes will it mean to you and your flying activities?

For ME…if I was renting, then one school which has, in addition to a CC Sport Cub and 2 Remos GX (LSAs), an Archer , 150 and 172 it would simply mean that I could now fly them as well as the LSAs. Ho hum.

It would mean that more local schools with the traditional Cessna/Piper planes would now be available. They're still pretty old planes.

It would mean that the local flying clubs which exclusively have the older Cessna/Pipers would now be available.

To own, instead of rent, there is nothing that I could remotely afford in the way of Cessna/Piper/Mooney etc. I would be extremely leery of buying a 30+ year old 'traditional' airplane, especially ex-flight school, although I realise that there are some nice planes out there if you look hard enough.

To own I'd still have to look at the LSA market, where I just chose an airplane to buy. The top end LSAs, though marvelous airplanes, are mostly over priced, over equipped, and worse, over-weight models when compared to some of the more basic models.

Cost of flying is still going to be king…insurance, fuel, maintenance, airplane payments, are all going to be factored in. Of course getting folks out to the airport to actually fly the planes that have been sitting idle for so long is a very good thing.

For ME, if it happened tomorrow and I didn't own, I'd say that there isn't much out there that would make me leap for joy and punch the air in anticipated excitement. My two closest airports…one has no flight school or rentals, one has a flying club with only the 150/172s being most affordable, and there are no newer LSA types. No newer planes of any kind. The third airport, where I flew a Remos, would allow me to fly their 150/172. A fourth still has a C162 which I flew.

What will happen to the Sport Pilot area of flying? How many here will drop that and move off to the bigger airplanes their lack of medical denied them?

What will attract new customers to the idea of learning to fly, fly for fun or to persue a career path? Will a school be able to do it using existing facilities and older planes, or will they have difficulty competing with perhaps a newer concept of the mega-school which can offer brand new 172s and Archers but are more regional than local?

If I had a son/daughter who wanted to peruse a career in flying , and wasn't going into the military, I'd suggest a big FL/AZ/TX school for all the licenses and ratings rather than doing it hour by hour at the local field.

Just curious….all the talk is ABOUT the change but I've not seen too much talk about WHAT it will mean for those who have the 3rd Class medical obstacle removed, if in fact it is. Any ideas?

MovingOn
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby MovingOn » Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:03 am

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Last edited by MovingOn on Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Jack Tyler
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby Jack Tyler » Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:33 am

How much did your LSA cost, Howard? Wasn't it ~$120K? If I were shopping today rather than owning, I'd look for a plane capable of flying my missions and with an eye to upgrading it's capabilities if/when my mission expanded. Assuming the new rule gives SPL pilots access to some Part 23 a/c, I could do that for $25K and up, as e.g. one of the local flight schools did when they bought an IFR certified 152 cream puff for $25K. You place a good deal of emphasis on 'new', but that isn't true for many (and especially the financially mortal). A lower cost entry point is important for those who want to own (part or all of an a/c) for both cost and also mission reasons (e.g. wanting to include a child in their new avocation, not just the partner). Put differently, not much would change for you...but my impassion is you are probably not representative of a sizable portion of the pilot population.

And that local flight school, which wanted to offer SPL training? They had brought in a Rans S19 (very pretty thing...) and then backed off on the purchase or lease, for this same reason. Better to wait a bit, see if the new rule allows them to spend $30K rather than $100K to offer SPL training, and in turn make the training less costly. Ideally, this means they would attract more SPL students and we'd see more activity at the airport. That sounds like a fair bit of change, all for the better.

BTW and certainly not due to any foresight on my part (!), our little Grumman would conceivably fall under the new rule if it's close to what we expect: 180 hp, fixed pitch prop, fixed gear but IFR certified and storm scope equipped. She was built by Gulfstream in Savannah, GA in 1979 and cost us just north of $50K. Now 35 years old, our repairs over the 3 years of ownership (aside from service life wear & tear items) amounted to one leaky brake line. Epoxy primer coated, she thankfully shows no corrosion - something important to those who live near an ocean. Altho' now an orphan, she is well supported by two long-time Grumman businesses and her type certificate is owned by - and parts are being manufactured by - Tiger Aircraft in Valdosta, GA. We had some longer flights in mind when shopping and 505 has taken us to Montana from Jax in two relatively easy days of ~6.5 hours each. (I love mentioning that these flights, out & back, cost less in fuel than the airlines charge. <s>) If it was just local flying that was the attraction, we could easily have spent half this sum. I mention all this because, while a visit to most flight schools and small airports reveals the dusty, little used & neglected Part 23 a/c out on a ramp that Howard mentions, it probably won't reveal many well cared for, well equipped a/c that are being kept in hangars and that are as affordable as a new mid-size sedan. And while we thought we'd found an especially good plane when we bought, with its almost new engine, I had multiple other choices available that were of comparable quality. My best guess is that my plane is worth about $10K less now than 3 years ago, simply because the marketplace looks like its remained contracted, post-recession. But that may not be true in, as Administrator Huerta describes it, "six months to two years". We shall see...
Jack
Flying in/out KBZN, Bozeman MT in a Grumman Tiger
Do you fly for recreational purposes? Please visit http://www.theraf.org

MovingOn
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby MovingOn » Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:37 am

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Last edited by MovingOn on Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Jim Stewart
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby Jim Stewart » Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:22 am

Probably nothing. I already have a private pilot cert and can pass a third class medical without any problems.
PP-ASEL, Flight Design CTSW owner.

CTLSi
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby CTLSi » Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:06 pm

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Last edited by CTLSi on Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

MovingOn
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby MovingOn » Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:20 pm

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Last edited by MovingOn on Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Nomore767
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby Nomore767 » Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:39 pm

Jack Tyler wrote:How much did your LSA cost, Howard? Wasn't it ~$120K? If I were shopping today rather than owning, I'd look for a plane capable of flying my missions and with an eye to upgrading it's capabilities if/when my mission expanded. Assuming the new rule gives SPL pilots access to some Part 23 a/c, I could do that for $25K and up, as e.g. one of the local flight schools did when they bought an IFR certified 152 cream puff for $25K. You place a good deal of emphasis on 'new', but that isn't true for many (and especially the financially mortal). A lower cost entry point is important for those who want to own (part or all of an a/c) for both cost and also mission reasons (e.g. wanting to include a child in their new avocation, not just the partner). Put differently, not much would change for you...but my impassion is you are probably not representative of a sizable portion of the pilot population.

And that local flight school, which wanted to offer SPL training? They had brought in a Rans S19 (very pretty thing...) and then backed off on the purchase or lease, for this same reason. Better to wait a bit, see if the new rule allows them to spend $30K rather than $100K to offer SPL training, and in turn make the training less costly. Ideally, this means they would attract more SPL students and we'd see more activity at the airport. That sounds like a fair bit of change, all for the better.

BTW and certainly not due to any foresight on my part (!), our little Grumman would conceivably fall under the new rule if it's close to what we expect: 180 hp, fixed pitch prop, fixed gear but IFR certified and storm scope equipped. She was built by Gulfstream in Savannah, GA in 1979 and cost us just north of $50K. Now 35 years old, our repairs over the 3 years of ownership (aside from service life wear & tear items) amounted to one leaky brake line. Epoxy primer coated, she thankfully shows no corrosion - something important to those who live near an ocean. Altho' now an orphan, she is well supported by two long-time Grumman businesses and her type certificate is owned by - and parts are being manufactured by - Tiger Aircraft in Valdosta, GA. We had some longer flights in mind when shopping and 505 has taken us to Montana from Jax in two relatively easy days of ~6.5 hours each. (I love mentioning that these flights, out & back, cost less in fuel than the airlines charge. <s>) If it was just local flying that was the attraction, we could easily have spent half this sum. I mention all this because, while a visit to most flight schools and small airports reveals the dusty, little used & neglected Part 23 a/c out on a ramp that Howard mentions, it probably won't reveal many well cared for, well equipped a/c that are being kept in hangars and that are as affordable as a new mid-size sedan. And while we thought we'd found an especially good plane when we bought, with its almost new engine, I had multiple other choices available that were of comparable quality. My best guess is that my plane is worth about $10K less now than 3 years ago, simply because the marketplace looks like its remained contracted, post-recession. But that may not be true in, as Administrator Huerta describes it, "six months to two years". We shall see...


Jack,

Interesting points.

First, I bought new because I wanted the SLSA version. There are a couple of almost new SLSA versions that popped up after I ordered which I might have considered had I known.

I actually DID shop for a plane that met all of my missions. In my case this plane opened up possibilities for missions which I didn't know were 'missions'! Like it really can fly from coast to coast and pretty comfortably. Not that I'll do that again in all likelihood.
At 61 I feel my future flying is going to be pretty much what I'm doing now. A local hop , an hour cross country, meet for lunch, some exploring, and a four hour one stop cross country to visit family. As I get older the 'mission' stays the same with more local hops and probably less longer runs.
In the buying process I was also looking at 2 different manufacturers with the 912iS engine. Used they were 50% more money than a brand new Vans. They were already due upgrades and mods to the iS engine and their avionics had already been superseded but the newer Garmin/Dynon big screen touch. Such is the speed of development in the LSA market.
That said I looked again at the 912ULS engine, and for ME it has so far given me close to what I could have gotten form the iS engine. Is the 912Sport engine fantastic? You bet. Have a look at the Glasair Merlin mockup at OSH and see the "Legend Cubbing" of the Skycatcher! They've revamped that design the way it coulda/shoulda been and with 912Sport engine, composite, and the latest avionics it's going be good, IF it gets to market. Meanwhile it's already priced $40k more than I paid to do what I can already do. So again, for ME, I'm good.
The alternative to buying the Vans, if the medical change goes through, is that I buy a 35 year old plane. Yes, some nice ones out there for a lot less than I paid. In fact the Cherokee 140 I soloed in 1978n is still flying, do I really want that? If someone made a brand new 'Legend Cub' re-do of the Cherokee or 150 I'd be seriously interested (without the medical).

I feel that the future for older geezers like me who could fly the 150. 172, Cherokees etc, will be bright if the rule changes. WE can end our days flying familiar, cheap to acquire and own, planes of our youth. However, the younger generation wants more and can get it in the market. e.g.. FD has the CTLSi that can do more than the airliners I flew at the start of my career.
LSAs like the Skycatcher and RV-12 don't even have vacuum systems, VOR and the NDB has long gone the way of the A/B beams.
My nephew is thinking of getting into flying as a career in the UK. His University Air Squadron has all glass high performance composite airplanes, chosen as trainers by the RAF. (The other RAF btw!! :))
The airlines are going to want students for their cockpits who have experience in glass cockpits and are familiar with the technology and technicalities. They'll never fly a VOR or NDB approach. It'll be all GPS approaches. As Boeing has just announced, there will be big programs to train young pilots to fly the new Airbusses and Boeings that have hugely sophisticated automated glass cockpits. I would argue the days of the kid learning to fly at the local FBO in a 150/172 so they can eventually apply to the airlines are about gone. New pilot candidates must have 1500 hours of high quality flight time, preferably quality PIC, multi and much glass cockpit training. Not talking about the regs here I'm talking about what the airlines will screen out from the applicant pool.
Lufthansa and BA train cadets from zero flight time to right seat of a sophisticated A320, 737 in about 350 hours of intense crew orientated procedure driven training. You won't get that at the Ma and Pa FBO, even if they buy an LSA to get 'modern'.
The older 150/172 will still train those that just want to get a PPL and learn to fly for fun because they always wanted to. That market is getting older and smaller and will, in my view, fizzle out eventually.

I think the VFR/IFR rating will start to merge as the sophistication of synthetic vision and automation negate the difference in flying procedures such that it won't matter a great deal if they can see out or not. Think about it. Similar in concept to the airline when I left…we always flew IFR, we always used the automation and flight management systems…the only factor the weather bought was how it affected the out come of the flight eg. would snow delay us, change our alternate, load, fuel requirement but we were still launching.. I think the same is happening as newer sophisticated small planes are beginning to offer the same ability, just not quite as good yet. e.g.. my RV-12, like other LSAs, has a fairly sophisticated a/p…limited only by it's little servos that need a lot of help in turbulence. How far we've come from the wing levelers in those Piper Arrows out on the ramps which we deemed 'complex' airplanes because of the better avionics, retract gear and variable pitch prop.
Soon, new airplanes will self land (like cars can now self park). Autopilots will be more sophisticated and the pilot will see the same synthetic view rain or shine. All in a small plane.

I think the decision for Ma and Pa FBO about whether to buy a newer LSA instead of the older 150 is almost mute. If the AOPA idea of refurbishing the 150 fleet to like new planes to get $65hour costs comes to fruition it'll be the last gasp of the dinosaur airplanes. And yeah I'd have bought one instead of the Vans if the price had been half.

On this forum posters mention frustration with schools that don't offer what they want or want medicals anyway. This is just turning off more potential customers and future renters. It'll change to flying club like arrangements where customers own the piece of the airplane they'll use and because of that interest will be more vested.
My point is that THEY will determine the market more than ever before and the FBO buying a couple of nice 150s isn't going to turn their heads and make them yearn to learn to fly them, as it did to me when I was that age. My nephew is clued into the new Archers at the big schools with g1000 EFIS etc. Those schools are going to equip with the new diesel powered planes burning Jet-A.

I take your point that I may not be representative of the rest of the market should the rule change. However, on the other hand, at my airport all the locals are interested in the 3 LSAs on the airport…the CTLS, Czech Sport and my RV-12. I've yet to hear of someone saying they can't wait for the rule to change so they can buy one of several traditional planes…a Cardinal, Bonanza and some Skyhawks that have been for sale at the airport for a long time. Everyone is surprisingly curious, as I was about the Rotax, the capabilities etc and were surprised that they could the same as their planes.
At Sebring there was a line at Garmin as the old 'geezers' (like me) were anxious to buy and install the latest and greatest new EFIS. They already had knees and yokes full of iPads and portable GPS units. They didn't seem content to sit and bask in the thought of flying their traditional planes in the future without a 3rd class medical.

Just saying.

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FastEddieB
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby FastEddieB » Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:54 pm

CTLSi wrote:
Jim Stewart wrote:Probably nothing. I already have a private pilot cert and can pass a third class medical without any problems.


But it is obvious that guys flying LSA who cannot or chose not to renew their 3rd class meds and have given up PP privilege, for whatever reason, will get back into their old Cessna's and Pipers and not look back...


Some may.

I, for one, almost certainly will not.
Fast Eddie B.
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TravelerMSY
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby TravelerMSY » Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:06 pm

It's not clear to me how the proposed exemption would affect those not holding a certificate already. It seems to not change anything based on a strict interpretation of the AOPA FAQ.

If it did allow training/solo on larger aircraft than LSA, it would open up many more training options for people without the 3rd class medical. Buying a 30k aircraft would even be an option for many. A lot of cars cost more than that.

MovingOn
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby MovingOn » Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:10 pm

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FastEddieB
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby FastEddieB » Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:47 pm

Again, for me a major factor keeping me from buying a Tiger, let's say, if the proposal goes through, is no longer being able to do my own work on it without restriction.

Now, if they would permit us to move Standard Category planes into Experimental as easily as they do with S-LSA's, that would be a different matter.

But I'm not holding my breath.
Fast Eddie B.
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Wm.Ince
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby Wm.Ince » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:27 pm

Not much would change here.
I retired from professional flying 3 years ago, let my Class 1 physical expire, went LSA and have not looked back.
I have a very capable (and affordable) little airplane (CTSW), fits my mission and have no plans on acquiring anything else.
That withstanding, it would be nice to do a little night flying once in a while, using my drivers license medical.

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David
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby David » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:49 pm

Build a RV14 - fly the Rv12 until the RV14 is done and then sell the RV12. :D
David
EAA 1434 Belfast ME
RV12 EAB - Maiden flight 8/30/12
David's RV12 http://www.rv12pilot.com

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dstclair
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Re: What will change for YOU if the medical changes go throu

Postby dstclair » Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:47 pm

Wm.Ince wrote:Not much would change here.
I have a very capable (and affordable) little airplane (CTSW), fits my mission and have no plans on acquiring anything else.
That withstanding, it would be nice to do a little night flying once in a while, using my drivers license medical.

This is pretty much me except I have Sting S3 and haven't looked back.
dave


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