Risk and Safe Flying: How Many Times Can You Catch the Ball?

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designrs
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Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2009 9:57 pm

Risk and Safe Flying: How Many Times Can You Catch the Ball?

Post by designrs »

Best quote I've seen on how to think about risk and flying.

From AOPA article:
Fighter jock instructor Larry Salganek teaching student...
"He hands me a rubber ball and asks if I can throw it up and catch it three times. Sure, easy enough. Then, he poses a hypothetical: What if he asked me to throw it up 200 times, and the first time I dropped it, I got shot. Could I do it? Now that’s a different proposition, one analogous to stepping up to a jet warbird from the piston-single world. One runway overrun in a jet warbird, and “you’re gonna die,”

It doesn't just apply to jets. Think of any aviation situation and ask yourself, "How many times can I catch the ball, at what consequence (risk)?"

* Also, really cool article too about transitioning to fighter jets starting with the L-39!

AOPA link (I believe this link is public and open to non-members)
http://www.aopa.org/aircraft/articles/2 ... c_sect=tts
jnmeade
Posts: 536
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2010 8:58 am
Location: Iowa

Re: Risk and Safe Flying: How Many Times Can You Catch the B

Post by jnmeade »

I didn't read/see the article, although I saw the blurb on it.

I guess I am just an old curmudgeon. I have trouble with all these aphorisms which often sound good but upon inspection are suspect or are based on a situation so loose that anyone can interpret it any way they like.

Why doesn't one simply state the odds, if there is a difference in risk between one situation and another? Aphorisms tend to mask objectivity.
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