How accident-prone were we in 2011?

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Jack Tyler
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How accident-prone were we in 2011?

Post by Jack Tyler »

[YET AGAIN, I'm reminded of how much of a step-child this website forum has been allowed to become. STILL no 'Safety' category.]

Bruce Landsberg of AOPA's Air Safety Institute just published a brief synopsis of GA accidents & fatalities for 2011, based on prelim NTSB stats. Trying to balance the bad news with a bit of humor, Burce offered the synopsis in Yogi Berra-Speak. (This will be followed in a comprehensive and more formal way by ASI's annual Nall Report). I'm sure ASI won't mind it being posted here as well. It was incorporated in AOPA's May 4th (weekly) ePilot newsletter, something everyone here might find worth receiving if you are an AOPA member.

"Yogi Berra is the malapropism king of the world and purveyor of some primary truths. For the younger readers, Yogi was a star baseball player and manager for the hated (or beloved) New York Yankees. It seems appropriate to misquote Yogi in looking at the latest GA accident numbers. There’s the sense of “Déjà vu all over again.” According to the NTSB preliminary 2011 numbers:

--There was an increase in GA accidents from 1,439 in 2010 to 1,466 in 2011
--Fatal accidents decreased from 268 in 2010 to 262 in 2011, but fatalities were up slightly
--The overall GA accident rate declined to 6.53 per 100,000 hours—the lowest since 2005
--The fatal rate was down to 1.17, declining from 1.23 in 2010—that almost matches the record set in 1999.

Take these numbers in context—measuring the number of hours flown is an imprecise science—hence the denominator is always a little suspect. Assuming that sampling errors are always the same, the relative change may be correct.

“You can observe a lot just by watching.” Profound thought for pilots—we really should be learning a lot more from other people’s mistakes, yet accident pilots consistently believe that Newton’s laws of gravity is just a passing fad. The mistakes are the same—every year.

This next line is priceless when applied to aviation: “If you can’t imitate him, don’t copy him.” Too many of our departed friends compared themselves to Bob Hoover, or merely a competent IFR pilot when, in fact, they weren’t especially good at aerobatics or instrument flight. Maneuvering flight continues to be a leading killer, as is weather—how many times have we said this?

“Baseball is 90% mental—the other half is physical.” So what about flying? My estimation is that it’s about 60% mental, 30% physical, and 75% judgment. The math may not quite add up but the idea is simple. You can overcome any skill level with enough bad judgment. There were accidents in 2011 that will cause some head shaking as we try to ascertain what the pilot was thinking. Sadly, there will be some others where someone was in the wrong place at the wrong time—this applies especially to passengers.

“When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” Decision making is an area we should spend some additional time on, both in training and in what the airlines call IOE or initial operating experience. This means that when we get a certificate or rating that confers new capability, take time to listen and learn even though you’ve passed the test…Ditto for checking out in a new model of aircraft. A logbook endorsement just means that you satisfied the paperwork requirement and there is still some real learning ahead.

“It ain’t the heat; it’s the humility.” Some pilots could stand a bit more humility because too many of our accidents occur to experienced folk who got complacent and/or distracted.

There are many more Yogisms, but his most famous is “It ain’t over, til it’s over.” For pilots, too many times after an accident—it’s over. Safety happens on every flight, so we have to out-think Murphy (Murphy’s Law) every time. Murphy only needs to win once, but we have hundreds of thousands of pilot who do it every year. You can be one of them!

We’ll have a much deeper look into the GA accident picture in the next edition of the Joseph T. Nall Report, which will be published later this year. The latest issue is available online.

The causal factors won’t change much. As Yogi said,“Déjà vu all over again.” And again…and again."
Jack
Flying in/out KBZN, Bozeman MT in a Grumman Tiger
Do you fly for recreational purposes? Please visit http://www.theraf.org
Jim Stewart
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Post by Jim Stewart »

We went to a FAAST seminar a few months ago. The presenter said several times that the problem was that "the pilots that really need to be here aren't".
PP-ASEL, Flight Design CTSW owner.
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designrs
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Post by designrs »

Jack, DrSeti & all...
Let's start a safety section of this forum.
I'd be happy to help in any way.

Having been involved in several "dangerous" sports (flying, motorcycling, equestrian sport, etc.) I'm always interested in researching why accidents happen. The truth is usually either:
a) most people can't handle the truth or
b) it's too inconvenient to do the safe thing

Regardless of the sport the result is usually the same...
You can usually come up with a short list of "killers".
Avoid items on the short list and your odds of survival just increased drastically.

In addition to the studies and well known accident causes (maneuvering, weather, controlled flight into terrain) the book entitled "The Killing Zone" studied private aviation fatalities in detail. The "killing zone" was in fact found to be pilots with between approximately 150 to 350 hours... when they had enough experience to THINK they knew what they were doing, but actually DID NOT have the skills, experience or judgement.
- Richard
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drseti
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Post by drseti »

designrs wrote:Let's start a safety section of this forum.
I'm all for having a Safety Corner forum under the Cruise section. Unfortunately, I can't add new top level forums; only the domain owner can do that. I've just emailed Gerald and made the request.
The opinions posted are those of one CFI, and do not necessarily represent the FAA or its lawyers.
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Jack Tyler
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Post by Jack Tyler »

Richard is echoing - indeed, 'channeling'! - the ASI when he says:

"Regardless of the sport the result is usually the same...
You can usually come up with a short list of "killers".
Avoid items on the short list and your odds of survival just increased drastically."

One can slice accident stats in a variety of ways - e.g. by total hours flown - but the basic killers are, and for a long time have been, well known:
-- flying into IMC and losing control of the a/c
-- maneuvering at lower speeds and altitudes (especially in the landing phase), and as embarrassing as it is to write this...
-- running out of gas (3 accidents per week in 2011 solely due to fuel exhaustion!)

Avoiding IMC and landing with fuel remaining in the tanks are hardly challenging tasks. Landing as taught and by the POH 'numbers' is something every beginning student pilot learns before being allowed to solo. Surely we can all avoid these three - major - causes of accidents and fatalities.

Paul, thanks for seeking the addition of a Safety section here - altho' as I recall, this isn't the first time we've made such a request.
Jack
Flying in/out KBZN, Bozeman MT in a Grumman Tiger
Do you fly for recreational purposes? Please visit http://www.theraf.org
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