Decreasing General aviation pilot numbers?

[eidolon]

I was reading an article in December AOPA Pilot magazine by Pres Mark baker lamenting the dwindling numbers of GA pilots ("Blue Skies Ahead", p6). According to the article, the number of Pilots flying in the US in 1980 (827,071) has today dropped to 590,038. Moreover, the number of private pilot "certificates issued" in 1980 (50,498) dropped in 2015 to 16,473. The total pilot numbers he uses are a little fuzzy (only GA, or all pilots?). The Private pilot "certificate issues" numbers are more clear. Beyond all that, however, is my question: What about Light Sport pilots? Are we included in those numbers, or are we being ignored? Since 2003, our LSA pilot population has grown substantially, but there is no mention of that fact in Baker's article. Does AOPA consider us pilots? This is a question I will send to AOPA, eventually, but I thought it is also food for thought in our own forum. Perhaps someone in our group already has insight about this issue?

[Merlinspop]

According to this FAA site (table 4), it looks like there were an estimated population of active Sport Pilot certificate holders of just under 5500. Less than 1% of the total, with a very modest growth curve. But they are included in the total 590k number. Frankly, this is currently a statistically insignificant number. But that shouldn't stop anyone from advocating for it and trying to grow the population.

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviat ... stats.xlsx

[HAPPYDAN]

Good point, but I believe a more significant occurrence (for me anyway) is the percentage of potential pilots that start down the general aviation flight training road and never finish. Sorry I can't provide any direct reference, but I've seen the number at +/- 80%. Sobering, to say the least, to think that 4 out of 5 people who have the desire to pilot a plane never make it. Perhaps GA has simply become too expensive and too complicated.

[HAPPYDAN]

I don't think it's any more complicated than it was 50 years ago, but it's certainly too expensive for most middle income people trying to raise a family, educate their kids, and plan for retirement. Light Sport is even worse due to the fact there is not a large fleet of older, lower cost LSA available to buy or rent.

Not to argue with your point, but my father soloed in a J3 Cub in 1942 after a 2-week ground school and 8 hours of dual. I soloed after 30 hours, 2 stage checks, a 3rd class medical, 95% on the FAA Knowledge test, and a 4-page write-out the answers test regarding the Skycatcher and basic flight operations. Yeah, it's more complicated. Of course, now we don't have the added motivation of Japanese and Germans trying to wipe us out.

[foresterpoole]

I don't know, I think General Aviation is headed for a heyday, it may be a few years and aircraft manufacturers need to pull their head out their a$$, but I think the day will be coming. I went to book 3 tickets to CLE from AEX, total cost of the lowest fares: 3,500.00 and that did not include baggage fees. I could get a lower fare, but I'd have to drive 2-3 hours to another airport, and still my bags are extra. United has now announced you will be charged extra for anything you can't fit under a seat and only 1 bag, no frequent flier miles, those are extra. The lower cost airlines are no better than busses in the sky, older aircraft prone to mechanical issues and delays. When my wife flew to Las Vegas her flight was canceled, one day, then delayed the second so she missed her connection and was stuck in Houston. All told, two extra days of pure VFR weather and she had to burn more vacation days and they lost her bag for a day and a half. I joked that if I already had my license I could have flown out faster and picked her up! Her response: get your license, not having control sucks (yes I explained weather delays, but that's mother nature).

Now where I was going with all of this: people (like myself) are tired of being treated like cattle, heared through security checkpoints and treated like convicts to pay exorbitant prices for cramped seats smelling like beer farts, cheap pretzels and some kids used diapers. I love flying, it saves time, but really 3500 plus tax and baggage fees?!?! This coupled with the surge in the sharing economy might just mean more people interested in " doing it themselves.". Why pay 3500 for a one time flight (in my case once a year) spend that on school and invest in an undivided interest aircraft! I know it's not less expensive, and in our case (LSA) it might even be slower than driving, but it's better than long lines with an 800# gorilla taking up his/her seat and 1/2 of yours! Plus there is all that freedom (within weather conditions) to just go when you want where you want on your own schedule. Just my 2 cents...

[foresterpoole]

I was trying for sarcasm, but the premise remains, it's becoming more difficult and expensive to fly commercially. I have nothing against professional pilots or air crew, but the companies are just getting worse, or are more interested in profit than anything else, I can't for the life of me comprehend their pricing models...

[MackAttack]

Like eyeflygps, I flew in the 80s then took a break and am flying again now. FLYING IS WAY EASIER NOW, believe me. Glass cockpits, GPS, envelope protection and autopilots, VFR flight following ... wow. Way easier. Stick and rudder stuff? Still the hardest thing to learn and stay proficient at, and the most important of course. But the actual flying from point A to B - insanely better. Could I do it with just steam gauges and pilotage/dead reckoning? Sure, and I do from time to time for fun. But would I prefer it to the GPS world? No sir!!

Having said that, I got my PPL in the early 80s for probably $2000 in total investment at my university's flying club in a 152, at about 40 hours TT. Today, it's going to take more time and cost a lot more money - even to get a SPL instead of a PPL. But I do think that the GA pilot population is stabilizing ... so I don't see doom and gloom.

The GAMA sales reports continue to show a decline in overall GA production (particularly piston singles), as Dan Johnson's recent article on his blog suggests. But some companies continue to do well and I think the market will continue to operate assuming we continue to get some modest reform on certification from the FAA.

I'm still bullish on general aviation even if it is down from its high water mark 30 years ago ... being able to fly my airplane was one of the things I was thankful for last Thursday ...

Cheers!