General Aviation Dying

[CTLSi]

A pilot and professor at a major university applies academic rigor to an analysis of the future health of general aviation. The hard numbers make for some stark reading. See his conclusions about ADS-B, aging pilot population, and the medical certification proposal summarized at the bottom of the article.

http://www.avweb.com/news/features/GAs- ... 927-1.html

[drseti]

An excellent (though sobering) article, in which I found only one glaring error:

For the past several years there has been a shortfall in the Aviation and Airways Trust Fund—which is supposed to pay for all FAA activities and is funded by aviation fuel taxes

Yes, the Trust Fund is dwindling. Yes, it is funded by fuel taxes (as well as airline ticket taxes). But it was never intended to pay for all FAA activities, any more than mogas taxes were intended to pay for all highways. To the extent that the FAA was intended to provide for safety of the general public, there was always an expected public funding contribution to its operation, dating back to the CAA and CAB days.

[Jack Tyler]

My read of this analysis, which I thought was very thorough, is that GA is - and for some time has been - changing, not dying. The author was describing trend lines and they lead in a disappointing direction for those of us who would like to see the recreational aviation slice of GA thriving as it did in its heyday. But that's just wishing for the past.