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tu16
Joined: 18 Feb 2010
Posts: 85
Location: Bellevue, WA
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| Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 3:39 am Post subject: GA and the middle class: The Great Divergence |
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Considering the source an interesting IMHO article: http://www.generalaviationnews.com/2011/02/02/ga-and-the-middle-class-the-great-divergence/
Interesting comments :) Couldn't resist to add my $0.02 too... :)
Quote: IMO only blind regardless of partisan allegiances, (well, just having partisan allegiances is a definition of “blind”, imo :) ) would deny the Great Divergence and its devastating effect on a middle class, standards of living, democracy and freedom itself taken over by internationall, global corporate elite’s greed and its corruption of national governments. This is huge global issue – for us and for a world to cope with for decades to come – turn on the news if you have any doubts.
The question nevertheless is how it is related to GA decline? Surely, the fact that my engineer’s salary was frozen for last 10+ years and almost every new job in at my corp is created abroad doesn’t help, cost of fuel, etc. too. Nevertheless at the age of 50+ I did earn a certificate of a Sport Pilot a month ago. Reaction of my loving wife on this – tears and anquish. :) Not that she fears I might end up killed in an accident. :) But because she’s afraid I may decide to sell our 38′ sailboat I owned for 15 years to afford an LSA. :) Because I’m not rich to afford both and do not have time to enjoy both hobbies. More flying for me – less sailing with her. These are very comparable expences (with LSA ownership nooticeably higher due to exhorbitant insurance and fuel costs) Do we dare to compare the experiences then?
Owning a crusing sailboat is life-style forming experience for the family with every year filled with anticipation of a new adventures, friendly ports with colorful and bustling waterfronts, blue skies and water, wind, life at sea with a sailboat being your second home. And this is achievable with maximum cruising speed only 7 knots! :)
Compare this with GA experience – constantly reducing number of strips in the middle of nowhere – often no attendance, no services, no ground transportation. You would think that VFR cruising in a light plane is similar to fair-weather summer sailing – you go wherever sun is shining and sky is blue only with 100+ knots – new places, new experiences! But very often there’s nothing much at your destination – the moment after you climb out of your plane and find whatever goes for a restroom – you just feel stranded in desolation, unless you choose you destination wisely and arranged with still alive FBO for a ground transportation and arranged full intinerary of your stay on a short notice. You cannot really make advance reservations on VFR flights :) The plane is not your home and camping under the wing is not everbody’s idea of a good time or of a common sense anymore. The logistics of such lesure travel, even if you can afford it, is brutal, tiring and unappealing… The only appeal remaining is just this love for flying itself – but how long the little flame will be burning, facing realities of life?
To stop any doubts, FAA declared LSA “a toy/hobby for the rich” in a regulatory fashion – remember the LSA and sport flying “cannot be used in furthering a business”. Ok – does the GA/LSA plane make a good toy then?
My point is that GA in general does not make a life-style case to a prospective recreational buyer into it. The lure of adventure of quick 100+nm hops around the state, the country, visiting easily dozens places you never been, seeing them from above and up close on the ground is there – but it’s largely undeveloped promise for those who can afford it. To survive the GA industry should invest in GA visitor/traveller infrastructure – the similar “red carpet” infrastructure biz-jet-oriented FBOs need to maintain. This is in a sense a “chicken and egg problem”. It needs a big infrastructure investment to bootstrap a growth – but I believe it’s in theory doable. Right now GA is on a “back of a power curve” – in a death spiral, no infrastructure investment and, therefore, dwindling customer base and no profits, therefore no invetsments, etc.
GA I think is confused by its former role as a nursery for professional pilots. Forget it.
Also, Alaska is a special place. They don’t have roads there. And GA is subsidized there. Not a model for the whole industry.
Nobody in a future will be able to afford to pull himself into a low-paying pro pilot seat by paying out of the pocket for flight experience in GA. This will need be taken over by airlines – they have to pay for pilot education if they need pilots. That’s how it is in other, formerly less rich countries. Which means in a modern globalized world that future US airline pilots will be probably mostly chinese, trained in China, too :) That’s where your “young eagles” are nesting right now – not here, not in GA.
GA’s “new pilot”, new “young eagle”, new potential growth is figuratively speaking me and my wife – millions of 40-50+ yr old top middle-class (10% bracket) of americans who could afford a private plane and travel in it – if only GA can make a life-style proposition case for it and promote it – similar to sailors, bikers in Harvey clubs etc. (If 20+ yr-old could afford 160K+ LSA that means he already flying in a biz-jet :) Somebody should make it worth the expense. I’m ready to buy my own LSA – as soon as I can make the case to my wife :) The sooner GA industry realizes that and can focus on pulling together travel industry, GA industry, local and federal government support to increase leasure travel by GA pilots – the sooner polpulation of GA pilots start growing again… |
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ibgarrett
Joined: 04 Dec 2008
Posts: 147
Location: Westminster, CO
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| Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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| I think it's spot-on! Thanks for sharing... |
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designrs
Joined: 23 Sep 2009
Posts: 144
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| Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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So would it be fair to say that the charter & private jet sector
is doing well today & will continue to grow over the next several years? |
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tu16
Joined: 18 Feb 2010
Posts: 85
Location: Bellevue, WA
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| Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 4:26 pm Post subject: |
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designrs wrote: So would it be fair to say that the charter & private jet sector
is doing well today & will continue to grow over the next several years?
Well, the Great Recession did bankrupt some private jet bublle-clientelle in US and elsewhere, which combined with overproduction during last hey-day years created a post-crash slump in private jet sales, but majority of those in top 1% - 0.1% income percentille imho continue and will continue to prosper, especially globally (the process of oligarchical collapse is usually irreversible :) ) :
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-04/02/content_9680458.htm
Quote: "China's private jet market is expected to witness the world's fastest annual growth rate of 15.6 percent from 2009 to 2018, according to a report issued by Canadian aircraft maker Bombardier. "
"The Market for Business Jet Aircraft"
http://www.forecastinternational.com/samples/F613_CompleteSample.pdf
Quote: Delivery of 100th Aircraft – In January 2010, Embraer delivered its 100th Phenom 100. The aircraft was
delivered to JetSuite Air, a private jet charter company, and was the sixth Phenom 100 delivered to this customer.
Based in Long Beach, California, JetSuite serves the western United States with its fleet of new Phenom 100s. The
company's major markets include the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas, Las Vegas, and Phoenix/Scottsdale.
JetSuite can provide nonstop or one-stop service to nearly all U.S. destinations west of the Mississippi River.
http://m.vcstar.com/news/2011/feb/01/sun-air-completes-expansion-project-at-camarillo/
Quote: Air travelers looking for five-star treatment will have more opportunities to travel like a celebrity with the recent expansion of Sun Air Jets at the Camarillo Airport.
Sun Air, which has operated at the Camarillo Airport since 2002, provides on-demand charter services for individuals and corporate jet support services 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
More than 170 people joined Sun Air officials during a red carpet event Thursday to mark their latest expansion, which includes two new hangars. The smell of fresh paint still wafted through the air as Sun Jet employees laid out the red carpet and arranged various jets in the new hangar.
The new hangars total about 45,000 square feet and include 3,000 square feet of available office space, said Sun Air President Steve Lassetter. The new addition marks the last phase of the company's planned growth on its 12-acre facility at the airport.
"We originally considered it about three years ago and had developed some basic plans, but once the economy became uncertain, we slowed the plans a bit," Lassetter said. "As time progresses, we knew we would need the space to attract new airplanes to our facility. There has been a considerable interest and we anticipate that our hangars will be full by the end of the year."
Although business has dropped off about 20 percent since the economy took a downturn about three years ago, Sun Air officials said increasing their hangar space by a third would not only be beneficial for the company, but surrounding businesses as well.
"What we are trying to do is bring air traffic from Van Nuys, Santa Monica and Burbank — and in that way, we can help generate a lot of jobs for the local community," said Sun Air spokeswoman Christine Elwess. "When people travel through here, we also do concierge work with local hotels and rental car companies. We want to make sure people have a home away from home when they travel with us."
Including Sun Air's latest addition, its five hangars total about 123,000 square feet, with an additional 20,000 square feet for its executive terminal.
About 85 percent of Sun Air's flights are domestic, but the company also offers private jets built for intercontinental flights. The company operates six private jets, including long range executive jets such as the Gulfstream III and the Global 5000 and mid-sized jets Hawker 800XP and Hawker 700.
The company also provides maintenance for corporate jets, including in-house inspections and nonscheduled repairs.
The Camarillo facility also provides conference rooms for clients to conduct meetings, a kitchen where flight attendants can put together meals and a lounge where pilots can sit back and relax.
"It's very nice here," said pilot James Webber, 33, as he sat with his feet up on a recliner in the lounge last week. "Some places have no amenities like this. They greet us off the plane and we have a place to rest — and that's important."
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zdc
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 8:20 pm Post subject: Re: GA and the middle class: The Great Divergence |
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tu16 wrote: Considering the source an interesting IMHO article: http://www.generalaviationnews.com/2011/02/02/ga-and-the-middle-class-the-great-divergence/
Interesting comments :) Couldn't resist to add my $0.02 too... :)
Quote: IMO only blind regardless of partisan allegiances, (well, just having partisan allegiances is a definition of “blind”, imo :) ) would deny the Great Divergence and its devastating effect on a middle class, standards of living, democracy and freedom itself taken over by internationall, global corporate elite’s greed and its corruption of national governments. This is huge global issue – for us and for a world to cope with for decades to come – turn on the news if you have any doubts.
The question nevertheless is how it is related to GA decline? Surely, the fact that my engineer’s salary was frozen for last 10+ years and almost every new job in at my corp is created abroad doesn’t help, cost of fuel, etc. too. Nevertheless at the age of 50+ I did earn a certificate of a Sport Pilot a month ago. Reaction of my loving wife on this – tears and anquish. :) Not that she fears I might end up killed in an accident. :) But because she’s afraid I may decide to sell our 38′ sailboat I owned for 15 years to afford an LSA. :) Because I’m not rich to afford both and do not have time to enjoy both hobbies. More flying for me – less sailing with her. These are very comparable expences (with LSA ownership nooticeably higher due to exhorbitant insurance and fuel costs) Do we dare to compare the experiences then?
Owning a crusing sailboat is life-style forming experience for the family with every year filled with anticipation of a new adventures, friendly ports with colorful and bustling waterfronts, blue skies and water, wind, life at sea with a sailboat being your second home. And this is achievable with maximum cruising speed only 7 knots! :)
Compare this with GA experience – constantly reducing number of strips in the middle of nowhere – often no attendance, no services, no ground transportation. You would think that VFR cruising in a light plane is similar to fair-weather summer sailing – you go wherever sun is shining and sky is blue only with 100+ knots – new places, new experiences! But very often there’s nothing much at your destination – the moment after you climb out of your plane and find whatever goes for a restroom – you just feel stranded in desolation, unless you choose you destination wisely and arranged with still alive FBO for a ground transportation and arranged full intinerary of your stay on a short notice. You cannot really make advance reservations on VFR flights :) The plane is not your home and camping under the wing is not everbody’s idea of a good time or of a common sense anymore. The logistics of such lesure travel, even if you can afford it, is brutal, tiring and unappealing… The only appeal remaining is just this love for flying itself – but how long the little flame will be burning, facing realities of life?
To stop any doubts, FAA declared LSA “a toy/hobby for the rich” in a regulatory fashion – remember the LSA and sport flying “cannot be used in furthering a business”. Ok – does the GA/LSA plane make a good toy then?
My point is that GA in general does not make a life-style case to a prospective recreational buyer into it. The lure of adventure of quick 100+nm hops around the state, the country, visiting easily dozens places you never been, seeing them from above and up close on the ground is there – but it’s largely undeveloped promise for those who can afford it. To survive the GA industry should invest in GA visitor/traveller infrastructure – the similar “red carpet” infrastructure biz-jet-oriented FBOs need to maintain. This is in a sense a “chicken and egg problem”. It needs a big infrastructure investment to bootstrap a growth – but I believe it’s in theory doable. Right now GA is on a “back of a power curve” – in a death spiral, no infrastructure investment and, therefore, dwindling customer base and no profits, therefore no invetsments, etc.
GA I think is confused by its former role as a nursery for professional pilots. Forget it.
Also, Alaska is a special place. They don’t have roads there. And GA is subsidized there. Not a model for the whole industry.
Nobody in a future will be able to afford to pull himself into a low-paying pro pilot seat by paying out of the pocket for flight experience in GA. This will need be taken over by airlines – they have to pay for pilot education if they need pilots. That’s how it is in other, formerly less rich countries. Which means in a modern globalized world that future US airline pilots will be probably mostly chinese, trained in China, too :) That’s where your “young eagles” are nesting right now – not here, not in GA.
GA’s “new pilot”, new “young eagle”, new potential growth is figuratively speaking me and my wife – millions of 40-50+ yr old top middle-class (10% bracket) of americans who could afford a private plane and travel in it – if only GA can make a life-style proposition case for it and promote it – similar to sailors, bikers in Harvey clubs etc. (If 20+ yr-old could afford 160K+ LSA that means he already flying in a biz-jet :) Somebody should make it worth the expense. I’m ready to buy my own LSA – as soon as I can make the case to my wife :) The sooner GA industry realizes that and can focus on pulling together travel industry, GA industry, local and federal government support to increase leasure travel by GA pilots – the sooner polpulation of GA pilots start growing again…
I think I'm going to be ill. |
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zdc
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Don't know where all those smiley faces came from, just hit the quote button. |
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